Ikimenyetso cya mbere N'ibanze byingenzi kubasuzuma amahirwe ni abaturage, bagena ingano yisoko rusange ryemewe (TAM). Niyo mpamvu ibigo byakwegereye Ubushinwa hamwe nabaguzi bose.
Usibye ubunini buke, imyaka yabaturage, imyaka yinjiza niterambere ryisoko ryo hasi riramba kandi ridashobora gukoreshwa kumasoko yanyuma, nibindi bintu nabyo bigira ingaruka kubikenerwa bya plastiki.
Ariko amaherezo, nyuma yo gusuzuma ibyo bintu byose, kimweigabanya ibyifuzo byabaturage kubaraumuturage asabwa, imibare yingenzi yo kugereranya amasoko atandukanye.
Abashinzwe demokarasi batangiye gutekereza ku bwiyongere bw'abaturage mu gihe kizaza kandi bemeza ko abatuye isi bazazamuka vuba kandi bakagabanuka bitewe n'uburumbuke muri Afurika ndetse n'uburumbuke buke mu Bushinwa ndetse n'ibindi bihugu bike bidashobora na rimwe gukira. Ibi birashobora kuzamura ibitekerezo byisoko ryisi yose.
Umubare w'abatuye Ubushinwa wavuye kuri miliyoni 546 mu 1950 ugera kuri miliyari 1.43 mu mwaka wa 2020. Politiki y'umwana umwe yo mu 1979-2015 yatumye igabanuka ry'uburumbuke, umubare w'abagabo / abagore ugabanuka ndetse n'ubwiyongere bw'abaturage, ubu Ubuhinde busaba Ubushinwa nk'igihugu gituwe cyane.
Umuryango w’abibumbye uteganya ko abaturage b’Ubushinwa bazagabanuka bagera kuri miliyari 1.26 mu 2050 na miliyoni 767 mu 2100. Aba bakaba baragabanutseho miliyoni 53 na miliyoni 134, nk’uko byari byavuzwe mbere na Loni.
Isesengura riherutse gukorwa n’abashinzwe demografiya (Ishuri Rikuru ry’Ubumenyi rya Shanghai, kaminuza ya Victoria ya Ositaraliya, n’ibindi) ryibaza ku mibare y’imibare iri inyuma y’ibi bitekerezo kandi iteganya ko abaturage b’Ubushinwa bashobora kugabanuka kugera kuri miliyari 1.22 muri 2050 na miliyoni 525 muri 2100.
Ibibazo ku mibare y'amavuko
Umu demografiya Yi Fuxian muri kaminuza ya Wisconsin yabajije ibitekerezo ku baturage b’abashinwa muri iki gihe ndetse n'inzira ishobora gutera imbere. Yasuzumye imibare y’imibare y’Ubushinwa asanga itandukaniro rigaragara kandi rikunze kugaragara, nko kutavuguruzanya hagati y’abavutse bavugwa n’umubare w’inkingo z’abana zitangwa ndetse n’abanyeshuri biga mu mashuri abanza.
Ibi bigomba kubangikanya, kandi sibyo. Abasesenguzi babona ko hari ingamba zikomeye zituma inzego z'ibanze zongera amakuru. Kugaragaza Razor ya Occam, ibisobanuro byoroshye nuko kubyara bitigeze bibaho.
Yi avuga ko abatuye Ubushinwa mu 2020 bari miliyari 1.29, aho kuba miliyari 1.42, umubare urenga miliyoni 130. Ibintu birakaze cyane mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba bw'Ubushinwa aho moteri y'ubukungu yahagaze. Yi yavuze ko hamwe n’uburumbuke buke - 0.8 n’urwego rusimburwa rwa 2.1 - Abashinwa bazagabanuka bagera kuri miliyari 1.10 muri 2050 na miliyoni 390 muri 2100. Menya ko afite ikindi cyerekezo giteye ubwoba.
Twabonye ibindi bigereranyo bivuga ko abatuye Ubushinwa bashobora kuba miliyoni 250 ugereranije n’ubu bivugwa. Ubushinwa bugera kuri 40% by'ibikoresho bya pulasitiki ku isi bikenerwa kandi nk'ibyo, ejo hazaza h’abaturage ku bijyanye n’ibindi bintu bigira ingaruka zikomeye ku bikoresho bya pulasitiki ku isi bisaba imbaraga.
Muri iki gihe Ubushinwa buri muntu ku giti cye bwongeye gukenera cyane ugereranije n’ubukungu bwateye imbere cyane, ibisubizo by’ibikoresho bya plastiki birimo ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ndetse n’uruhare rw’Ubushinwa nk '“uruganda ku isi”. Ibi birahinduka.
Kumenyekanisha ibintu
Tuzirikana ibi, twasuzumye bimwe mubitekerezo bya Yi Fuxian tunategura ubundi buryo bujyanye n’ejo hazaza h’abatuye Ubushinwa ndetse n’ibikenerwa bya plastiki. Kubyingenzi byacu, dukoresha 2024 UN iteganya kubaturage kubushinwa.
Iyi UN iheruka kwerekana umubare w’abatuye Ubushinwa yavuguruwe hasi uhereye ku isuzuma ryakozwe mbere. Twahise dukoresha ICIS yo gutanga & Gusaba amakuru ateganijwe kugeza 2050.
Ibi byerekana Ubushinwa kuri buri muntu usanga ibyifuzo byinshi - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropilene (PP), polystirene (PS) na polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - biva kuri 73 kg muri 2020 bikagera kuri 144 kg muri 2050.
Twasuzumye kandi igihe nyuma ya 2050 kandi twibwira ko umuturage asabwa kongera kwiyongera kugera kuri 150 kg mu myaka ya za 2060 mbere yo kugabanuka kugeza mu mpera z'ikinyejana - kugera kuri 141 kg mu 2100 - inzibacyuho n'inzira isanzwe y'ubukungu bukuze. Kurugero, Reta zunzubumwe zamerika zisabwa aba resin zageze kuri 101 kg muri 2004.
Kubindi bintu, twatekereje ko abaturage ba 2020 bari miliyari 1.42, ariko ko igipimo cy’uburumbuke kiri imbere kizagereranya impinja 0,75, bigatuma abaturage 2050 bangana na miliyari 1.15 n’abaturage 2100 bangana na miliyoni 373. Twise scenario Dire Demografiya.
Muri iki gihe, twatekereje kandi ko kubera ibibazo byubukungu, resins ibisabwa bizakura kare kandi kurwego rwo hasi. Ibi bishingiye ku Bushinwa budahunga ubukungu buciriritse mu bukungu bwateye imbere.
Imbaraga za demokarasi zitanga ibitekerezo byinshi byubukungu. Muri iki gihe, Ubushinwa bwatakaje umugabane w’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga ku isi kubera ibikorwa by’ibindi bihugu byahinduye gahunda ndetse n’ubucuruzi bw’ubucuruzi, bigatuma ibicuruzwa biva mu bikoresho bya plastiki biri munsi - ugereranije n’ibanze - ibicuruzwa byoherejwe byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Dutekereza kandi ko urwego rwa serivisi ruzunguka nk'umugabane w'ubukungu bw'Ubushinwa. Byongeye kandi, ibibazo byumutungo n’imyenda bipima imbaraga zubukungu muri 2030. Impinduka zuburyo zirimo gukorwa. Muri uru rubanza, twerekanye urugero ku muturage wa resin asabwa kuva kuri 73 kg muri 2020 ukagera kuri 101 kg muri 2050 kandi ukagera kuri 104kg.
Ibisubizo by'ibihe
Mu rubanza rwa Base, isabwa ryinshi risabwa kuva kuri toni miliyoni 103.1 muri 2020 kandi ritangira gukura mu myaka ya za 2030, rikagera kuri toni miliyoni 188.6 muri 2050. Nyuma ya 2050, umubare w’abaturage ugabanuka ndetse n’iterambere ry’isoko / ubukungu byagira ingaruka mbi ku cyifuzo, kikaba kigera kuri toni miliyoni 89.3 muri 2100. Uru ni urwego rujyanye n’ibisabwa mbere ya 2020.
Hamwe n’imyumvire idahwitse ku baturage no kugabanya imbaraga z’ubukungu mu bihe bya Dire Demografiya, ibyifuzo by’ibisigazwa by’ibanze biva kuri toni miliyoni 103.1 muri 2020 bigatangira gukura muri 2030, bigera kuri toni miliyoni 116.2 muri 2050.
Umubare w’abaturage ugabanuka n’ingaruka mbi z’ubukungu, icyifuzo kigabanuka kugera kuri toni miliyoni 38.7 muri 2100, urwego rujyanye n’ibisabwa mbere ya 2010.
Ingaruka zo kwihaza no gucuruza
Hariho ingaruka kubushinwa plastike isubira kwihaza no kuringaniza ubucuruzi bwayo. Mu rubanza rwa Base, Ubushinwa umusaruro munini w’ibisigazwa wavuye kuri toni miliyoni 75.7 muri 2020 ugera kuri toni miliyoni 183.9 muri 2050.
Urubanza rwa Base rwerekana ko Ubushinwa bukomeje gutumiza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga, ariko aho biva mu mahanga biva kuri toni miliyoni 27.4 muri 2020 bikagera kuri toni miliyoni 4.7 muri 2050. Twibanze gusa ku gihe cyo muri 2050.
Mugihe cya vuba, gutanga ibisigazwa ahanini bigenda nkuko byateganijwe nkuko Ubushinwa bugamije kwihaza. Ariko mu myaka ya 2030, kwagura ubushobozi biratinda ku isoko ry’isi itagabanijwe ndetse n’ubucuruzi bwiyongera.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, ukurikije icyerekezo cya Dire Demografiya, umusaruro urarenze uhagije kandi mu ntangiriro za 2030 Ubushinwa bugera ku kwihaza muri ibyo bisigazwa kandi bugaragara nk’ibicuruzwa byohereza mu mahanga toni miliyoni 3.6 muri 2035, toni miliyoni 7.1 muri 2040, toni miliyoni 9.7 muri 2045 na toni miliyoni 11,6 muri 2050.
Hamwe n’imibare iteye ubwoba hamwe n’ubukungu bwifashe nabi mu bukungu, kwihaza hamwe n’umwanya woherezwa mu mahanga bigerwaho vuba ariko “bigacungwa” kugira ngo ibibazo by’ubucuruzi bigabanuke.
Nibyo, twarebye neza kuri demografiya, ahazaza h'uburumbuke buke kandi bugabanuka. “Demografiya ni iherezo”, nk'uko ikinyejana cya 19 umufilozofe w'Abafaransa Auguste Comte yabivuze. Ariko ibyateganijwe ntibishyizwe mumabuye. Ubu ni bumwe mu buryo buzaza.
Hariho ikindi gihe kizaza gishoboka, harimo n’ibipimo by’uburumbuke bikira hamwe n’umuvuduko mushya wo guhanga udushya mu ikoranabuhanga uhuza kuzamura umusaruro bityo ubukungu bukiyongera. Ariko ibintu byatanzwe hano birashobora gufasha uruganda rukora imiti gutekereza kubidashidikanywaho muburyo bunoze no gufata ibyemezo bigira ingaruka kubejo hazaza - kwandika amateka yabo.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Jul-05-2025
