IKIMENYETSO CYA MBERE N'ICY'INGENZI KU BASHAKA AKAMARO NI UKO ABATURAGE BABONA INGANO Y'Isoko RYO GUTANGA AMAFARANGA (TAM). Niyo mpamvu amasosiyete yakuruwe n'Ubushinwa n'abo baguzi bose.
Uretse ingano y’ibicuruzwa, imyaka y’abaturage, amafaranga yinjira n’iterambere ry’amasoko aramba kandi adapfa gukoreshwa, hamwe n’ibindi bintu bigira ingaruka ku ikenerwa rya resini ya pulasitiki.
Ariko amaherezo, nyuma yo gusuzuma ibi bintu byose, kimweigabanya icyifuzo hakurikijwe abaturage kugira ngo ibarweigikenewe kuri buri muturage, ni ingenzi mu kugereranya amasoko atandukanye.
Abahanga mu mibare y’abaturage batangiye kongera gutekereza ku bwiyongere bw’abaturage mu gihe kizaza, kandi banzura ko umubare w’abaturage ku isi uzagabanuka vuba bitewe n’igabanuka ry’uburumbuke muri Afurika n’uburumbuke buke mu Bushinwa no mu bindi bihugu bike bishobora kutazongera kuzamuka. Ibi bishobora kubangamira ibyo isoko ry’isi riteganya ndetse n’imiterere yaryo.
Abaturage b'Ubushinwa biyongereye kuva kuri miliyoni 546 mu 1950 bagera kuri miliyari 1.43 zemewe mu 2020. Politiki y’umwana umwe yo mu 1979-2015 yatumye uburumbuke bugabanuka, igipimo cy’abagabo n’abagore kigabanuka ndetse n’ubwiyongere bw’abaturage, ubu Ubuhinde busimbura Ubushinwa nk’igihugu gituwe cyane.
Umuryango w’Abibumbye witeze ko abaturage b’Ubushinwa bazagabanuka bakagera kuri miliyari 1.26 mu 2050 na miliyoni 767 mu 2100. Aba bagabanutseho miliyoni 53 na miliyoni 134 ugereranije n’ibyari byateganijwe mbere na Loni.
Isesengura riherutse gukorwa n’abahanga mu by’imibare y’abaturage (Shanghai Academy of Sciences, Victoria University of Ositaraliya, nibindi) rishidikanya ku bitekerezo by’abaturage biri inyuma y’ibi bipimo kandi ryiteze ko abaturage b’Ubushinwa bashobora kugabanuka bakagera kuri miliyari 1.22 mu 2050 na miliyoni 525 mu 2100.
Ibibazo ku mibare y'abana bavutse
Umuhanga mu by’imibare y’abaturage Yi Fuxian wo muri Kaminuza ya Wisconsin yashidikanyije ku bitekerezo by’abaturage b’Abashinwa muri iki gihe n’inzira ishobora gutera imbere. Yasuzumye amakuru y’abaturage b’Abashinwa maze asanga hari itandukaniro rigaragara kandi rikunze kugaragara, nko kutumvikana hagati y’abana bavutse n’umubare w’inkingo z’abana zitangwa ndetse n’abinjira mu mashuri abanza.
Ibi bigomba kuba bihuye, kandi ntabwo ari ko bimeze. Abasesenguzi babona ko hari impamvu zikomeye zituma inzego z'ibanze zishyira amakuru mu buryo bufatika. Dukurikije Occam's Razor, ibisobanuro byoroshye ni uko abana bavutse batigeze babaho.
Yi avuga ko umubare w'abaturage b'Abashinwa mu 2020 wari miliyari 1.29, ntabwo ari miliyari 1.42, umubare muto urenze miliyoni 130. Ibi birakomeye cyane mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba bw'Ubushinwa aho ubukungu bwahagaze. Yi yatekereje ko hamwe n'umubare muto w'abana - 0.8 ugereranije n'urwego rwo gusimbuza rwa 2.1 - abaturage b'Ubushinwa bazagabanuka bakagera kuri miliyari 1.10 mu 2050 na miliyoni 390 mu 2100. Menya ko afite ikindi gitekerezo cy'uko abantu benshi batazabasha kubyaza umusaruro.
Twabonye ibindi bigereranyo byerekana ko abaturage b'Ubushinwa bashobora kuba bari munsi ya miliyoni 250 ugereranyije n'ibivugwa ubu. Ubushinwa bufite hafi 40% by'ibikenewe ku isi mu gupima pulasitiki, bityo, andi mahitamo y'ejo hazaza ku baturage n'ibindi bintu agira ingaruka zikomeye ku mihindagurikire y'ibikenewe ku isi mu gupima pulasitiki.
Ubusanzwe u Bushinwa busaba resini kuri buri muntu ubu iri hejuru cyane ugereranije n’ibindi bihugu byateye imbere, ibi bikaba byaratewe n’ubwinshi bw’ibicuruzwa byarangiye byoherezwa mu mahanga ndetse n’uruhare rw’Ubushinwa nk’uruganda “rw’isi”. Ibi birimo guhinduka.
Tubamenyesha uko ibintu bimeze
Dukurikije ibi, twasuzumye bimwe mu bitekerezo bya Yi Fuxian maze dushyiraho ubundi buryo bwo kureba ahazaza hashoboka ku baturage n’ibicuruzwa bya plastiki mu Bushinwa. Ku bw’ibanze, dukoresha ibipimo bya Loni byo mu 2024 ku baturage mu Bushinwa.
Iki gipimo cya nyuma cya Loni cy’abaturage b’Ubushinwa cyasubiwemo gikurwa ku isuzuma ryakozwe mbere. Hanyuma twakoresheje igipimo cya vuba cya ICIS Supply & Demand database kugeza mu 2050.
Ibi bigaragaza ko Ubushinwa bukeneye resins nini kuri buri muntu – acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) na polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – byazamutse biva kuri kilogarama hafi 73 mu 2020 bikagera kuri kilogarama 144 mu 2050.
Twanasuzumye igihe cyakurikiye umwaka wa 2050, maze dutekereza ko icyifuzo cya resini kuri buri muntu cyazamuka kikagera kuri 150kg mu myaka ya 2060 mbere yo kugabanuka mu mpera z'ikinyejana - kikagera kuri 141kg mu mwaka wa 2100 - ihinduka n'inzira isanzwe mu bukungu burimo gutera imbere. Urugero, icyifuzo cya buri muntu muri Amerika kuri izi resini cyageze ku kigero cya 101kg mu mwaka wa 2004.
Ku bundi buryo, twatekereje ko abaturage bo mu 2020 bari miliyari 1.42, ariko ko igipimo cy'uburumbuke mu gihe kiri imbere kizaba ari impuzandengo y'abana 0.75 bavutse, bigatuma abaturage bo mu 2050 babarirwa muri miliyari 1.15 n'abaturage 2100 babarirwa muri miliyoni 373. Twabyise Dire Demografiya.
Muri iki kibazo, twatekereje kandi ko bitewe n’ibibazo by’ubukungu, ubusabe bw’ibikomoka kuri resini buzakura vuba kandi ku rwego rwo hasi. Ibi bishingiye ku kuba Ubushinwa butazahunga ubukungu buri hagati mu mikoro ngo bugere mu bukungu buteye imbere.
Imiterere y’abaturage itera ibibazo byinshi by’ubukungu. Muri iki gihe, Ubushinwa bwatakaje umusaruro w’inganda ku isi bitewe n’ingamba zo kuvugurura ibikorwa by’andi mahanga n’ibibazo by’ubucuruzi, bigatuma ikoreshwa rya resine rigabanuka bitewe n’ingano y’ibicuruzwa bya plastiki biri hasi ugereranyije n’ibicuruzwa by’ibanze byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Turatekereza kandi ko urwego rwa serivisi ruzungukira mu bukungu bw'Ubushinwa. Byongeye kandi, ibibazo by'imitungo n'imyenda bireba iterambere ry'ubukungu mu myaka ya 2030. Impinduka mu miterere y'ubutaka zirimo zirakomeje. Muri uru rubanza, twagaragaje ko icyifuzo cya resin kuri buri muntu cyazamutse kiva kuri 73kg mu 2020 kikagera kuri 101kg mu 2050 kandi kikagera kuri 104kg.
Ibisubizo by'ibyabaye
Muri urwo rubanza rw’ibanze, ubusabe bw’ibikomoka ku bimera binini bwiyongereye kuva kuri toni miliyoni 103.1 mu 2020, butangira gukura mu myaka ya 2030, bugera kuri toni miliyoni 188.6 mu 2050. Nyuma ya 2050, igabanuka ry’abaturage n’impinduka mu iterambere ry’isoko/ubukungu bigira ingaruka mbi ku busabe, bugabanuka bukagera kuri toni miliyoni 89.3 mu 2100. Iki ni urwego rujyanye n’ubusabe bwa mbere ya 2020.
Kubera ko abaturage bafite icyizere kinini kandi ubukungu bugahinduka mu buryo bukabije, icyifuzo cy’ibikomoka ku mavuta menshi cyazamutse kiva kuri toni miliyoni 103.1 mu 2020, gitangira kwera mu myaka ya 2030, kigera kuri toni miliyoni 116.2 mu 2050.
Kubera ko abaturage bagabanuka n’ubukungu bugenda bubi, icyifuzo cyagabanutse kikagera kuri toni miliyoni 38.7 mu mwaka wa 2100, urwego rujyanye n’icyo mbere y’umwaka wa 2010 cyari gikenewe.
Ingaruka zo kwihaza no gucuruza
Hari ingaruka ku kwihaza kwa resini za pulasitiki zo mu Bushinwa ndetse n'uburinganire bw'ubucuruzi bwazo. Mu rubanza rw'ibanze, umusaruro munini wa resini mu Bushinwa wavuye kuri toni miliyoni 75.7 mu 2020 ugera kuri toni miliyoni 183.9 mu 2050.
Icyegeranyo cy’ibanze kigaragaza ko Ubushinwa bukomeje gutumiza mu mahanga resins nini, ariko aho butumizwa mu mahanga hagabanutse kuva kuri toni miliyoni 27.4 mu 2020 kugera kuri toni miliyoni 4.7 mu 2050. Twibanda gusa ku gihe kugeza mu 2050.
Muri iki gihe cya vuba aha, gutanga resin ahanini bigenda neza nk'uko biteganijwe mu gihe Ubushinwa bwifuza kwihaza. Ariko mu myaka ya 2030, kongera ubushobozi bizagabanuka ku isoko mpuzamahanga rirenze urugero ndetse n'ubushyamirane mu bucuruzi burushaho kwiyongera.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, hakurikijwe imiterere y’abaturage iteye ubwoba, umusaruro urahagije cyane, kandi mu ntangiriro za 2030, Ubushinwa bwihagije kuri izi resin, buva mu gihugu cyohereza toni miliyoni 3.6 mu 2035, toni miliyoni 7.1 mu 2040, toni miliyoni 9.7 mu 2045 na toni miliyoni 11.6 mu 2050.
Bitewe n’imiterere y’abaturage iteye ubwoba n’ubukungu bugoye, kwihaza no kubona umwanya wo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bigerwaho vuba ariko "bigakorwa" kugira ngo bigabanye amakimbirane mu bucuruzi.
Birumvikana ko twarebye mu buryo burambuye ku bijyanye n’imibare y’abaturage, ahazaza h’uburumbuke buri hasi kandi bugabanuka. “Imibare y’abaturage ni iherezo”, nk’uko umuhanga mu bya filozofiya w’Umufaransa wo mu kinyejana cya 19, Auguste Comte, yabivuze. Ariko iherezo ntirishyirwaho mu ibuye. Iri ni rimwe mu hazaza hashoboka.
Hari n'ibindi bintu bishoboka mu gihe kizaza, harimo aho igipimo cy'uburumbuke kizamuka ndetse n'udushya tw'ikoranabuhanga duhurira hamwe kugira ngo twongere umusaruro bityo ubukungu burusheho kwiyongera. Ariko imiterere igaragazwa hano ishobora gufasha amasosiyete y'ibinyabutabire gutekereza ku bintu bidasobanutse neza mu buryo buteguye no gufata ibyemezo bigira ingaruka ku hazaza habo - kugira ngo amaherezo bandike inkuru yabo bwite.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-05-2025
